Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 2 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears (vs. CIN) | -1.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Vikings (at ARI) | +3.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Packers (vs. DET) | -11.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bills (at MIA) | -3.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Jaguars (vs. DEN) | +6.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| 49ers (at PHI) | -3.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Colts (vs. LAR) | +3.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Titans (at SEA) | +5.5 | +4 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Browns (vs. HOU) | -12.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Ravens (vs. KC) | +3.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Panthers (vs. NO) | +3.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Chargers (vs. DAL) | -3.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Giants (at WAS) | +3.5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Patriots (at NYJ) | -5.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. ATL) | -12.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Football Team (vs. NYG) | -3.5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Jets (vs. NE) | +5.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Raiders (at PIT) | +5.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Steelers (vs. LV) | -5.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Falcons (at TB) | +12.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Cowboys (at LAC) | +3.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Saints (at CAR) | -3.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Texans (at CLE) | +12.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Chiefs (at BAL) | -3.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Broncos (at JAX) | -6.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Eagles (vs. SF) | +3.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Rams (at IND) | -3.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Seahawks (vs. TEN) | -5.5 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Dolphins (vs. BUF) | +3.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Bengals (at CHI) | +1.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cardinals (vs. MIN) | -3.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Lions (at GB) | +11.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 2 Bet the Board Contest Picks
Vikings (+3.5) at Cardinals
- When: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where: State Farm Stadium; Glendale, Ariz.
- TV: FOX
The Cardinals may have been the most pleasant surprise of Week 1, going on the road and completely destroying the Titans 38-13, as Kyler Murray resembled the electrifying terror that we saw in his high school YouTube footage and in his Heisman-winning season at Oklahoma.
On top of that, Arizona held Tennessee to a league-low 3.9 yards per play, largely shutting down the pass-run combo of Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry, both of whom are coming off outstanding seasons.
Meanwhile, Minnesota stumbled in Cincinnati, as Dalvin Cook fumbled in overtime, setting up a game-winning field goal for the Bengals. Now, the Vikings stay on the highway to battle a Cardinals that might start getting some Super Bowl buzz if it can lay waste to Minnesota in Week 2.
Our model has the Vikings with a HIGBEE value of +5 this week, with each of the regression and overreaction indicators on their side, one of which is the line move from Vikings +2.5 through the key number of 3.
Mike Zimmer is one of the best defensive game planners in the NFL, so let’s trust that he can get the Vikings back on track and stay inside the number here.
Texans at Browns (-12.5)
- When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Where: FirstEnergy Stadium; Cleveland, Ohio
- TV: CBS
Houston smashed Jacksonville 37-21 in Week 1, but not only were we not impressed, we’ve seen this trick before. The Jaguars upset Indianapolis in Week 1 then didn’t win a game the rest of the way, finishing 1-15.
We’re not saying the Texans will suffer a similar fate, but… oh wait, yes we are. Houston has the worst roster in the league, and with the Deshaun Watson situation still unsettled, the Texans have absolutely no motivation to put a competitive product on the field, and if that wasn’t apparent in the opener, it will start to become clear in Week 2.
Cleveland was probably the most hard-luck loser in Week 1, putting up an NFL-best 8.2 yards per play on the road at Kansas City and appearing to be in control against the mighty Chiefs for large stretches of the game. The fact that the Browns couldn’t finish the job last week will leave a sour taste in their mouths, so look for them to take out their aggression on a Houston team that should be fat and happy after an unexpected win.
The Browns were -14 on the look-ahead line, and despite losing to the Chiefs, just reaffirmed their status as a Super Bowl contender, so the move to -12.5 doesn’t seem to be grounded in anything meaningful.
Saints at Panthers (+3.5)
- When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Bank of America Stadium; Charlotte, N.C.
- TV: FOX
Both the Saints and Panthers got off to great starts last week, with Carolina defeating the Jets at home while New Orleans drubbed the Packers at a neutral site in Jacksonville.
This week, New Orleans stays in the Southeast, moving up the coast to Charlotte to take on the Panthers, and the question here is whether the Saints are simply facing too many obstacles to win this game.
New Orleans will be without eight assistant coaches due to COVID-19. The Saints were already without defensive tackle David Onyemata (suspension) and Michael Thomas (ankle). Now, they’ve lost center Erik McCoy (calf), linebacker Pete Werner (hamstring), linebacker Kwon Alexander (elbow) and edge rusher Marcus Davenport (shoulder). Corner Marshon Lattimore had thumb surgery this week and is questionable.
That’s a lot of bodies, many of whom have Pro Bowl credentials. On top of that, New Orleans has been practicing and playing away from home for several weeks now in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida and you just wonder if this is a spot where it catches them. The wrong team may be favored here.
Broncos at Jaguars (+6.5)
- When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Where: TIAA Bank Field; Jacksonville, Fla.
- TV: CBS
Jacksonville looked horrible in Week 1, getting poleaxed by a Texans team everyone figured would be flat-out tanking this season. And there are already rumors that players and assistant coaches are fed up with first-year head coach Urban Meyer, so it’s fun times all around in Jacksonville.
Meanwhile, Denver dominated the Giants on the road and brings a fearsome defensive line down the East Coast to Florida to chase around rookie Trevor Lawrence this week. So backing the Jaguars here is a pretty terrifying proposition.
However, we seem to have a few things on our side here, sanity not among them unfortunately. The Jaguars could be due for positive turnover regression and should be desperate to prove to the NFL that they’re not a Mickey Mouse operation, despite their proximity to Orlando and everything.
The look-ahead line on this game was Jacksonville +3.5 so we’ve now moved through the secondary key numbers of 4 and 6, a couple of the more valuable numbers in pro football. Let’s take the points and bet that it’s a market overreaction and that Meyer, Lawrence & Co. will figure things out a bit in Week 2.
Lions at Packers (-11.5)
- When: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Lambeau Field; Green Bay, Wis.
- TV: ESPN
Green Bay was -12.5 on the look-ahead line, and while we can understand the downgrade after the Packers’ listless, pathetic effort against New Orleans, what in the hell did Detroit do to close the gap?
Sure Detroit covered the spread against San Francisco, thanks to a furious fourth-quarter comeback, aided by an onside kick going off Niners tight end George Kittle’s facemask, but can you say “fluke”?
The Lions defense got absolutely shredded by Kyle Shanahan’s troops, yielding 8.0 yards per play, the second-worst mark of Week 1. To make matters worse, Detroit lost starting corner Jeff Okudah to a ruptured Achilles. Even if Okudah has been a major disappointment thus far, trust us, his replacements aren’t any more appealing.
Now the Lions go to Lambeau Field to face an amped-up, primetime crowd and a pissed-off Aaron Rodgers. Look for Green Bay to get the neglected Aaron Jones going early against a lousy Detroit rush defense, greasing the skids for Rodgers to take the top off an extremely suspect Lions secondary.
It feels incredibly square to take two huge home favorites, but we expect Houston and Detroit to be the two worst teams in the NFL, and this week each gets to face superior and highly motivated opponents.
Week 3 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:20 PM | NFLN | Carolina (-4) at Houston |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Baltimore (-7.5) at Detroit |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Washington at Buffalo (-8.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Chicago at Cleveland (-9.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Arizona (-6.5) at Jacksonville |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | L.A. Chargers at Kansas City (-7) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | New Orleans at New England (-1) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (-1.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Indianapolis at Tennessee (-3.5) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | N.Y. Jets at Denver (-8.5) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Miami at Las Vegas (-1.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Tampa Bay at L.A. Rams (-1.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Seattle (-2.5) at Minnesota |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Green Bay at San Francisco (-3.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Philadelphia at Dallas (-3.5) |
