Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
You can read all about HIGBEE here.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
Week 3 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 5-3-0 ATS (62.5%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 2-1-0 ATS (66.7%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 2-1-0 ATS (66.7%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts (vs. KC) | +6.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Broncos (vs. SF) | +1.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Vikings (vs. DET) | -5.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Bears (vs. HOU) | -2.5 | +3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (vs. ATL) | -0.5 | +3 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Dolphins (vs. BUF) | +6.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Commanders (vs. PHI) | +6.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Cowboys (at NYG) | -0.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Chargers (vs. JAX) | -6.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Rams (at ARI) | -3.5 | +2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Titans (vs. LV) | +2.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Packers (at TB) | +0.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Steelers (at CLE) | +4.5 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Bengals (at NYJ) | -5.5 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Patriots (vs. BAL) | +2.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Panthers (vs. NO) | +2.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Saints (at CAR) | -2.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Ravens (at NE) | -2.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Jets (vs. CIN) | +5.5 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Browns (vs. PIT) | -4.5 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. GB) | -0.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Raiders (at TEN) | -2.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Cardinals (vs. LAR) | +3.5 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Jaguars (at LAC) | +6.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Giants (vs. DAL) | +0.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Eagles (at WAS) | -6.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Bills (at MIA) | -6.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Texans (at CHI) | +2.5 | -3 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Falcons (at SEA) | +0.5 | -3 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Lions (at MIN) | +5.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Chiefs (at IND) | -6.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| 49ers (at DEN) | -1.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
Week 3 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 4-1
- YTD: 7-3 (70.0%)
- Rank: T-199 out of 2,012 (90th percentile)
This week’s picks:
- Colts +6.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Vikings -5.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Dolphins +6.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Commanders +6.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Broncos +1.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday
The Colts have now dropped eight straight trips to Jacksonville, so it wasn’t the loss itself that was surprising, but rather the blowout margin (24-0). Nonetheless, Indy was +3 on the look-ahead line vs. Kansas City, so this contest line has moved through some of the most valuable real estate in football out to +6.5. The current market is showing Indy +5.5, which may reflect the status of Colts receiver Michael Pittman Jr., who is off the injury report and a huge get-back for QB Matt Ryan. The Colts are rated a +4 value by our HIGBEE model, making them too good to pass up.
…Minnesota was -7.5 on the look-ahead line before a typical Kirk Cousins prime time no-show in Philly on Monday night, although the Lions’ impressive win over Washington played a role in the movement of this number too. The Vikings, however, retain one of the best home field advantages in football and should have absolutely no problem moving the ball up and down the field today against the Lions D. The line movement through the key of 7 and secondary key of 6 factors into the Vikings being a HIGBEE +4 value. The Purple People Eaters it is.
…The Dolphins, fresh off their thrilling 42-38 stunner over the Ravens, return home to host the Bills in Miami’s oppressive heat and humidity. The 1 o’clock kickoff projects to have a game-time temp of 89 degrees with a “real feel” of 101, which could spell problems for Buffalo’s injury-riddled D. The Bills are without safety Micah Hyde, cornerback Dane Jackson and defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips. Meanwhile, other key defensive chess pieces such as safety Jordan Poyer and defensive tackle Tim Settle are questionable. On offense, three key players are on the injury report, including center Mitch Morse, receiver Gabe Davis and tight end Dawson Knox, all of whom are questionable. The Dolphins are a +3 value according to HIGBEE this week.
…The Commanders played about as dreadful of a first half as you can play last week against the Lions, falling behind 22-0 before showing some signs of life and ultimately falling short, 36-27. And as dominant as the Eagles looked in that MNF thrashing of the Vikings, the line move here is simply way too much in a game featuring familiar division foes. Washington was +3 on the look-ahead line and has surged all the way out through the secondary key of 6 to +6.5. The Commanders are a HIGBEE +3 value, so we’ll roll the dice here.
…Broncos rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett is under intense scrutiny after embarrassing crunch-time gaffes in both Week 1 and Week 2, and new QB Russell Wilson hasn’t looked comfortable as he acclimates to new teammates and a new offense. The biggest problem, however, has been Denver’s pathetic red zone performance, as the Broncos are a dismal 0-for-6. Let’s bank on some red zone regression to the mean and take Denver, which was -3 on the look-ahead line and is rated a HIGBEE +4 value today.
Week 4 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 AM | Amazon | Miami at Cincinnati (-1.5) |
| Sun | 9:30 AM | NFL Network | Minnesota (-1.5) vs. New Orleans at London, UK |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Seattle at Detroit (-6) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Washington at Dallas (-2.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Tennessee at Indianapolis (-3.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Chicago at N.Y. Giants (-3) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cleveland (-3) at Atlanta |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Buffalo (-4) at Baltimore |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | L.A. Chargers (-7) at Houston |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Jacksonville at Philadelphia (-7) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh (-3.5) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Arizona (-2.5) at Carolina |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | New England at Green Bay (-6) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Denver at Las Vegas (-2) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Kansas City (-1.5) at Tampa Bay |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | L.A. Rams at San Francisco (-2.5) |
