Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even some contrarian thinking to make our picks.
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 4 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 10-3-0 ATS (76.9%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 7-2-0 ATS (77.8%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 3-1-0 ATS (75.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars (at CIN) | +7.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Ravens (vs. DEN) | +0.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bears (at DET) | -2.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Giants (vs. NO) | +7.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Steelers (at GB) | +6.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Raiders (vs. LAC) | +3.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Panthers (at DAL) | +4.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Jets (vs. TEN) | +6.5 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 |
| Rams (at ARI) | -4.5 | +2 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| 49ers (vs. SEA) | -2.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Patriots (at TB) | +6.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Texans (vs. BUF) | +15.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Colts (at MIA) | +1.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Football Team (vs. ATL) | -1.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Falcons (at WAS) | +1.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Browns (vs. MIN) | -2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Vikings (at CLE) | +2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Chiefs (vs. PHI) | -6.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Eagles (at KC) | +6.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Bills (vs. HOU) | -15.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| Dolphins (at IND) | -1.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Cowboys (vs. CAR) | -4.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Titans (at NYJ) | -6.5 | -2 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Cardinals (vs. LAR) | +4.5 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Seahawks (at SF) | +2.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. NE) | -6.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Chargers (at LV) | -3.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Lions (vs. CHI) | +2.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Saints (at NYG) | -7.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Packers (vs. PIT) | -6.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Bengals (at JAX) | -7.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Broncos (vs. BAL) | -0.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 4 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 3-2
- YTD: 8-7 (53.3%)
Although we have our head above water after two weeks, we will need a couple 5-0 or 4-1 weeks to really make a move up the leader board. There were at least 8-9 games that garnered attention this week, so paring it down to just five was a challenge.
Home-field advantage has been on the decline for years in the NFL, and while bookmakers aren’t blind to this fact, they still haven’t been able to catch up, meaning we tend to gravitate toward road teams when push comes to shove. This week’s card features four road dogs.
Giants (+7.5) at Saints
- When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Caesars Superdome; New Orleans, La.
- TV: FOX
We have now zig-zagged with the Saints for three straight weeks, backing them in Weeks 1 and 3 and fading them in Week 2, and in all three weeks, we’ve been right. So why mess with a good thing?
As great as the Saints’ 28-13 win over New England looked on the scoreboard, a deeper dive into the box score reveals a more sobering truth: New Orleans’ offense is pretty anemic right now. Despite the somewhat lopsided win, the Saints averaged a paltry 4.1 yards per play, compared to 4.3 for the Patriots.
Meanwhile, the Giants are a bad football team. They’re 0-3 so far. Daniel Jones hasn’t made the leap in Year 3. And both GM Dave Gettleman and head coach Joe Judge might not be long for their jobs if the losing continues unabated in Gotham.
With that said, there are a few things working in our favor this week. For starters, New York has held a yards-per-play advantage against each of its opponents the last two weeks — Washington and Atlanta — so maybe the Giants aren’t as horrible as we think.
Second of all, the Giants don’t really have much of a home-field advantage, so going on the road doesn’t seem to be much of a burden for them. In that same vein, New Orleans’ home-field advantage, which casual fans would almost certainly regard as one of the best in the NFL, is quite a bit overstated when you look at the actual stats over the last 20 years.
And last but not least, this number is fat, and that fact is reflected by our HIGBEE model, which is extremely bullish on the Giants this week. Our market-implied power ratings have New Orleans -4, so to pick up both the secondary key of 6 as well as the all-important key number of 7 is more than enough for us to back the beleaguered G-men in this spot.
Lions at Bears (-2.5)
- When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Soldier Field; Chicago, Ill.
- TV: FOX
Matt Nagy is going to get fired in Chicago for the same reason Dan Quinn was fired in Atlanta last season. When you’re hired as a guru on a particular side of the ball — offense in Nagy’s case, defense in Quinn’s — and that side of the ball is an abject disaster, there is simply nothing left to hang your hat on.
Chicago was a special kind of horrific in Week 2, giving rookie quarterback Justin Fields his first career start and watching the offense average an almost impossibly abysmal 1.1 yards per play in a 26-6 loss to the Browns.
Meanwhile, to no one’s surprise, Detroit is 0-3 on the season but the Lions have turned some heads with how hard they’ve fought for new coach Dan Campbell. In Week 1, there was a furious fourth-quarter comeback that fell short against San Francisco.
In Week 2, the Lions played a masterful first half on Monday Night Football at Green Bay, but the wheels came off in the second half and the Packers were able to take control of the game.
In Week 3, Detroit was bedeviled by the officials’ inexplicable miss of what should have been a delay-of-game penalty against the Ravens, only to watch Baltimore kicker Justin Tucker crow-hop into an insane (and NFL-record) 66-yard game-winning field goal that bounced off the crossbar and caromed into the net.
So here we are in Week 4, with two old rivals meeting on the shores of Lake Michigan. The market has adjusted to the Bears’ total ineptitude and the Lions’ spirit of competitiveness by dropping this line from Chicago -6 all the way down to Chicago -2.5
Nagy hasn’t even named a starting QB this week, leaving open the possibility of Fields, Andy Dalton or even Nick Foles. No matter how you slice it, it’s an ugly situation for the Bears, but at the same time, you have to wonder if it’s a buy-low spot on Chicago against a Detroit team that’s dismal on both sides of the ball.
Our HIGBEE model likes the Bears, with all of the regression and overreaction variables in Chicago’s favor, and our season-long market-implied power ratings make this Bears -6 to -7. So let’s take the deflated line and do the unthinkable: lay points with the battered and beaten Bears.
Seahawks (+2.5) at 49ers
- When: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where: Levi’s Stadium; Santa Clara, Calif.
- TV: FOX
Seattle’s season got off to a great start, with the Seahawks pummeling the Colts in Indy. But it’s been a mess since then, as Seattle let one slip away at home against the Titans in Week 2, before getting rocked 30-17 by the Vikings in Week 2.
Getting back to .500 won’t be easy, as Seattle stays on the road to face NFC West rival San Francisco in a crucial early-season game.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are kicking themselves after letting the chance to start 3-0 get away thanks to the Packers’ late-game heroics on Sunday Night Football last week.
The question for us here is, Have bookmakers installed the wrong team as favorite?
Seattle ranks seventh in Football Outsiders’ DAVE metric, which is a formula that combines FO’s preseason forecast with current DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. Meanwhile, San Francisco is just 12th in DAVE.
In addition, using our season-long implied power ratings, we actually make Seattle a small favorite here, and that’s using nearly 2 points as the home-field advantage, even though the data shows the 49ers’ actual home-field edge has been well below that since moving to Levi’s Stadium.
The Seahawks are second in offensive DVOA, and Russell Wilson should be licking his chops at the thought of picking apart a shaky Niners secondary by flinging bombs to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Although Jimmy Garoppolo looked great on the touchdown drive that gave San Francisco a late lead against Green Bay, Jimmy G has had a subpar start to the season, and the calls for first-round pick Trey Lance to get more playing time could intensify any week now.
Right now, the Seahawks have the superior quarterback, and their offense is the best unit on either side of the ball in this game. Given that we don’t put much stock in home-field advantage here, the Seahawks catching points is too good to resist.
Ravens (+0.5) at Broncos
- When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: Empower Field at Mile High; Denver, Colo.
- TV: CBS
After exorcising their personal demons by beating Kansas City on Sunday Night Football in Week 2, Baltimore narrowly escaped an embarrassing loss to the bottom-feeder Lions in Week 3 thanks to Justin Tucker’s miraculous 66-yard field goal as time expired. The Ravens are now 2-1 on the season.
Meanwhile, Denver has been one of the best stories of the young season, roaring out to a 3-0 start behind sudden gunslinger Teddy Bridgewater and a patsy schedule that has seen the Broncos wallop the Giants, Jaguars and Jets.
In this spot, Denver steps way up in class to face a Ravens team that is starting to get some bodies back on defense.
Prior to the season, we would have made the Ravens a 5-point favorite on a neutral field. Even factoring in the injuries they’ve incurred, as well as Denver’s hot start, this line move might be too much.
Baltimore still ranks fifth in Football Outsiders’ DAVE metric, while Denver is at a respectable ninth. But the Broncos have benefited from playing the NFL’s easiest schedule thus far, and the Ravens represent their first major challenge.
Given where the spread sits, this is essentially a money line play, and we like Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to make enough plays to sneak out of Mile High with the win.
Steelers (+6.5) at Packers
- When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: Lambeau Field; Green Bay, Wis.
- TV: CBS
Aaron Rodgers did outrageous Aaron Rodgers things in Week 3, throwing two utterly ridiculous dimes to Davante Adams to set up Mason Crosby’s game-winning field goal as time expired to lift the Packers over San Francisco 30-28.
Even if Green Bay had fallen short, the Packers were the better team in San Fran, holding a commanding 6.0 to 4.5 edge in yards per play. Now the Packers return home to the friendly confines of Lambeau Field to face a reeling Pittsburgh team that is coming off an embarrassing 24-10 home loss to Cincinnati and sits at 1-2 on the year.
In our preseason market-implied power ratings, we had Green Bay less than a half point better than Pittsburgh on a neutral field. While we understand the market has continued to adjust the Steelers downward, it is still a stretch to get to Packers -6.5 here.
In Week 1, we backed the Steelers in Buffalo, citing Tomlin’s sterling record as an underdog and his ability to create an us-against-the-world spirit in his locker room. Pittsburgh delivered with an upset win over the Bills.
Literally nothing has gone Pittsburgh’s way since, as the Steelers have dropped seemingly winnable home games against the Raiders and Bengals, the latter of whom administered a severe beating to the Black and Gold.
If Pittsburgh no-shows here in Green Bay, you might start hearing calls for a proper rebuild in the Steel City, and it could be time to permanently write the Steelers off for the season. But, let’s look past the Steelers’ pathetic effort in the last two games and take what appears to be a slightly inflated number.
Week 5 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:20 PM | FOX | L.A. Rams (-1.5) at Seattle |
| Sun | 9:30 AM | NFLN | N.Y. Jets vs. Atlanta (-4) at London |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Detroit at Minnesota (-8) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Philadelphia at Carolina (-4) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Green Bay (-3) at Cincinnati |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | New England (-7.5) at Houston |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Tennessee (-7.5) at Jacksonville |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Denver (-2) at Pittsburgh |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Miami at Tampa Bay (-9.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | New Orleans (-1.5) at Washington |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Chicago at Las Vegas (-6.5) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Cleveland (PK) at L.A. Chargers |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | San Francisco at Arizona (-2.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | N.Y. Giants at Dallas (-8.5) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Buffalo at Kansas City (-3.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Indianapolis at Baltimore (-6.5) |
