Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even some contrarian thinking to make our picks.
HIGBEE Model Explained
High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.
Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.
With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.
JAMEIS
Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.
If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.
SNACKS
Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.
Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.
WATT
Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.
Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.
Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.
Week 5 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 14-5-0 ATS (73.7%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 11-3-0 ATS (78.6%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 5-1-0 ATS (83.3%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers (at ARI) | +5.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Chiefs (vs. BUF) | -2.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bengals (at GB) | +3.5 | +3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Raiders (vs. CHI) | -5.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Rams (at SEA) | -2.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Lions (vs. MIN) | +9.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Panthers (at PHI) | -3.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Texans (vs. NE) | +9.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Jaguars (at TEN) | +4.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Steelers (vs. DEN) | -1.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Dolphins (at TB) | +9.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Football Team (vs. NO) | +1.5 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 |
| Browns (at LAC) | +2.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Giants (vs. DAL) | +6.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Colts (at BAL) | +7.5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Jets (vs. ATL) | +3.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Falcons (at NYJ) | -3.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (vs. LAR) | +2.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Vikings (at DET) | -9.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Eagles (vs. CAR) | +3.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Patriots (at HOU) | -9.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Titans (vs. JAX) | -4.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Broncos (at PIT) | +1.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. MIA) | -9.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 |
| Saints (at WAS) | -1.5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Chargers (vs. CLE) | -2.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (at NYG) | -6.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Ravens (vs. IND) | -7.5 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Bears (at LV) | +5.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Packers (vs. CIN) | -3.5 | -3 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Cardinals (at SF) | -5.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Bills (vs. KC) | +2.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 5 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 4-1
- YTD: 12-8 (60.0%)
Last week was a good one as we went 4-1 with three dogs winning outright in the Seahawks, Giants and Ravens. Only the Steelers failed to cover, and even that outcome may have been solely due to a phantom offsides call.
With Green Bay leading 14-10 just before the half, Pittsburgh perfectly timed and jumped the snap, blocked Mason Crosby’s field goal attempt, and returned it for a touchdown, only to see it nullified by a completely fooled officiating crew.
So instead of Pittsburgh taking a surprise 17-14 lead, the Packers made the second field goal attempt and took a 17-10 lead into the break — a 10-point swing!
Lions at Vikings (-9.5)
- When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Where: U.S. Bank Stadium; Minneapolis, Minn.
- TV: FOX
Lions fans have been hearing that God-forsaken viking horn — first at the Metrodome, now at U.S. Bank Stadium — in their sleep for decades now, and this week’s game will only make it worse.
The offensive line was supposed to be the Lions’ strength season, but in case you forgot, the Lions can’t have nice things, and so predictably the O-line is decimated with injuries. Left tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow are both on IR, and first-round pick Penei Sewell, who has played on the left and right sides, is doubtful for this week.
That’s not a good omen for quarterback Jared Goff, who struggles under pressure and has the worst set of receivers in the NFL. On the defensive side, an already grim situation got worse for the Lions with the Achilles injury suffered by linebacker Romeo Okwara.
The Vikings are a hard-luck 1-3, but they’ve played the NFL’s toughest schedule to date, so this is an opportunity for them to get right against a vulnerable opponent.
With the line moving to Vikings -10, we get the benefit of a stale contest number. Expect Minnesota to move up and down the field against the Lions at will and register a comfortable win.
Patriots at Texans (+9.5)
- When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Where: NRG Stadium; Houston, Texas
- TV: CBS
There is really nothing from a numbers perspective that supports a Texans play here, as Davis Mills has been predictably horrific under center in Tyrod Taylor’s absence and Houston’s D hasn’t exactly provided a ton of resistance either.
But this is a situational play and a bet that New England may have “shot its gun” in last week’s much-ballyhooed showdown with the Buccaneers in Tom Brady’s return to Foxborough. Coming off a competitive and emotional game with Tampa, the Patriots now travel across the country to face an inferior opponent.
While Mac Jones has looked very competent and may have a promising future for New England, he’s still a rookie and prone to some of the same mistakes that have bedeviled Mills. Now Jones hits the road with a severely banged-up offensive line that could be down four starters due to injury or COVID on Sunday.
While we don’t have the stomach to watch this game, let’s bank on getting a watered-down, less-inspired Patriots team here against a motivated Texans squad that will be hungry to prove it’s at least a respectable NFL team after last week’s 40-0 shellacking in Buffalo.
49ers (+5.5) at Cardinals
- When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: State Farm Stadium; Glendale, Ariz.
- TV: FOX
The Cardinals are the darlings of the NFL right now, off to a surprise 4-0 start behind emerging MVP candidate Kyler Murray. Arizona is sixth in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA, sixth in defensive DVOA, and third in overall DVOA, behind just Buffalo and Dallas.
In addition, Arizona is fifth in net yards per play, trailing only Buffalo, Cleveland, Philadelphia and Cincinnati. Now the Cardinals are fresh off a commanding 37-20 win over the Rams in Los Angeles in Week 4.
San Francisco, meanwhile, comes into the game licking its wounds after a home loss to Seattle that dropped the 49ers to 2-2 on the season. The Niners are 13th in DVOA and 12th in net yards per play and may be down starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who is questionable with a calf injury.
However, value hunters may gravitate toward Kyle Shanahan’s side this week. Both our preseason market-implied power ratings and our weighted market-implied power ratings (which place added emphasis on the last three weeks) make this game closer to a pick ’em.
Even if the Niners are forced to start rookie Trey Lance at quarterback, and even if you factor in the recent form of each team, it requires quite a leap to think those variables warrant a nearly 6-point move in the spread.
Arizona +6 was available at many sportsbooks earlier this week, and given the importance of that number as a secondary key, it appears to have been gobbled up, as the line eventually settled in under 6, even as low as 4.5 at most shops right now.
If the Cardinals truly are an unstoppable force right now, we may have to make another adjustment to our core number after this one, but let’s roll with the 49ers here as a value buy and hope they can run the ball well enough to keep it close.
Browns (+2.5) at Chargers
- When: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where: SoFi Stadium; Inglewood, Calif.
- TV: CBS
Welcome to this week’s edition of “Is the Wrong Team Favored?” Sure, the Chargers have gone supernova the last two weeks, upsetting the Chiefs at Arrowhead then detonating the overmatched Raiders on Monday Night Football.
But Cleveland is no pushover either, as the Browns are 3-1 and coming off a big road win at Minnesota. In fact, there’s a few reasons to believe Cleveland is the flat-out better team here.
For starters, using our preseason market-implied power ratings, we would have made this Browns -3 on a neutral field. Since we know the Chargers have no home-field advantage — and haven’t since they left San Diego — regardless of what value you use for HFA, it is difficult to arrive at the current number.
Further, if we look at Football Outsiders’ DVOA, the Browns are fourth in total DVOA, including ninth on offense and a very stout third on the defensive side. The Chargers, for as great as they’ve looked at times, are just 14th in DVOA, including 11th on offense and ninth on defense.
The matchup to watch here will be the Browns’ rushing attack (second in rushing DVOA) vs. the Chargers rush D (25th in rushing DVOA). Cleveland is a run-first team, and Chargers head coach Brandon Staley is often happy to concede yards on the ground in exchange for choking off opponents’ explosive passing.
Needless to say, that’s a strategy that may play right into the Browns’ hands, so it will be fascinating to see if Staley alters the Bolts’ style to make Cleveland uncomfortable. At the end of the day, this game feels like no worse than a coin flip, so give us the Browns and the points.
Bills at Chiefs (-2.5)
- When: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Arrowhead Stadium; Kansas City, Mo.
- TV: NBC
The Bills enter this AFC Championship Game rematch at 3-1 and on fire, having bludgeoned Miami, Washington and Houston the last three weeks, including shutouts of the Dolphins and Texans. Buffalo is No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, although the Bills have built their resume by beating up on the NFL’s easiest schedule thus far.
Meanwhile, Kansas City comes in at an unspectacular 2-2 and on a two-game losing streak. The Chiefs let one slip away at Baltimore two weeks ago, then got lit up by Justin Herbert and the Chargers at Arrowhead last week.
The Chiefs went 14-2 last season and of course went all the way to the Super Bowl, but their 8-0 record in games decided by a TD or less pointed to some regression this season, and that regression has reared its ugly head in the last two weeks.
Nonetheless, the Kansas City offense is as explosive as ever, a fireworks display waiting to be detonated at any moment, and one that now adds Josh Gordon. But the defense has been abysmal, ranking 32nd in defensive DVOA.
Buffalo has four critical defensive pieces listed as questionable for Sunday — edge A.J. Epenesa, linebacker Matt Milano, cornerback TreDavious White and safety Jordan Poyer. Even if all of them play, it’s unrealistic to think they’ll be anywhere near 100%.
It is not often you get to buy low on Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, but laying less than a field goal at Arrowhead is not an opportunity we plan to pass on, especially with this banged-up Bills defense.
Week 6 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:20 PM | FOX | Tampa Bay (-6.5) at Philadelphia |
| Sun | 9:30 AM | CBS | Miami (-3) vs. Jacksonville at London |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Green Bay (-4.5) at Chicago |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Kansas City (-6.5) at Washington |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Minnesota at Carolina (-1) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | L.A. Chargers at Baltimore (-3.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Cincinnati (-3.5) at Detroit |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Houston (OFF) at Indianapolis |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | L.A. Rams (-7) at N.Y. Giants |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Arizona at Cleveland (-3) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Las Vegas at Denver (-2.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Dallas (-1) at New England |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Seattle (OFF) at Pittsburgh |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Buffalo (-3.5) at Tennessee |
