NFL Week 7: HIGBEE model, contest picks, analysis and look-ahead lines

Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.

In addition to using our HIGBEE NFL model as a guide to identifying value, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even some contrarian thinking to make our picks.

HIGBEE Model Explained

High Importance Games Become Easier to Evaluate (also known as HIGBEE) is a framework we adapted to help identify NFL teams that may have hidden value, or on the flip side, overinflated value in the market.

Teams can have a score ranging from +5 (most value) to -5 (least value). The model has three components: one that indicates turnover regression, one that indicates spread covering regression, and one that indicates market overreaction, or recency bias.

With the turnover regression indicator, there is a point up for grabs for each team for a total of two points. With the spread covering regression indicator, there is also a point up grabs for each team for an additional two points. With the market overreaction indicator, there is a single point up for grabs between the two teams, hence the five total points.

JAMEIS

Jumble And Mismanage, Err or Inflict Suffering (also known as JAMEIS) is the turnover regression indicator, and it reflects turnover margin in each team’s previous game. The premise is that turnovers in the NFL are often luck-based events, with a low degree of repeatability. While turnover margin is correlated with winning in any single game, teams with a positive turnover margin in past games are unlikely to maintain that forward and are thus likely to suffer a decline in performance.

If a team had a negative turnover margin the previous week, it gets a +1 because we consider it a candidate for positive regression. If the team had a positive turnover margin, it gets a -1. If a team’s opponent had a positive turnover margin, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent had a negative turnover margin, it gets a +1.

SNACKS

Spreads Not Accounting for Changing Karma Soon (or SNACKS) is the spread covering regression indicator, and it reflects each team’s against-the-spread (ATS) record on the season. The premise is teams that have fared poorly covering spreads can be deemed hungry, and thus will be in search of SNACKS.

Casual bettors are prone to betting the same teams repeatedly and are often heavily influenced by recent performance. These bettors think fondly of teams that have covered, while swearing off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by coercing the public into taking inflated lines with teams that have winning ATS records.

If a team has a negative record ATS, it gets a +1 because it is hungry, and hungry teams will always be in search of SNACKS. If a team has a positive record ATS, it gets a -1 because it is satiated and less inclined to go searching in the cupboard for SNACKS. If a team’s opponent has a winning record ATS, the opponent gets a -1. If the opponent has a losing record ATS, it gets a +1.

WATT

Weighted Average Turning Tide (or WATT) is the recency bias indicator and it reflects whether the line moved for or against a team since last week. As oddsmakers gain additional data points, they adjust their power ratings to reflect the changing strength of each NFL team. Those power ratings are then used to set each week’s lines. The premise here is that oddsmakers slightly overreact to the most recent data points, thus creating value.

Let’s say that prior to Week 1’s games, Detroit is listed at +7.5 at Green Bay in the Week 2 look-ahead line. After Week 1’s games are completed and each team’s performance is evaluated, let’s say Detroit opens at +8.5 at Green Bay in Week 2. We assign Detroit a +1 for WATTS. Because we don’t want to double count the line move, instead of giving Green Bay a -1, we simply give the Packers a zero.

Not all line moves are created equal though, so we will pay extra attention to situations where the line moves across key numbers like 3, 7 or 10 (as a disproportionate number of NFL games land on these numbers) and to a lesser extent secondary keys such as 4 and 6.

Week 7 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model

• YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 17-8-0 ATS (68.0%)
• YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 12-6-0 ATS (66.7%)
• YTD HIGBEE +5: 5-3-0 ATS (62.5%)

Week 7 Bet the Board Contest Picks

• Last week: 3-2
• YTD: 16-14 (53.3%)

We got back on track with a 3-2 mark in Week 6 and probably should have been 4-1. With the Patriots catching 4.5 points at home against Dallas, all the Cowboys needed was a field goal to end it in overtime, but instead, Dak Prescott found CeeDee Lamb for a walk-off touchdown, giving Dallas the improbable cover.

(NOTE: There are only four write-ups this week, as we locked in the Browns -1.5 on Thursday night for our first contest pick of the week.)

Chiefs (-5.5) at Titans

• When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• Where: Nissan Stadium; Nashville, Tenn.
• TV: CBS

Kansas City comes into this game just 3-3 and, believe it or not, flying a bit under the radar after losses in marquee games to the Ravens, Chargers and Bills. While the Chiefs’ offense can still put up points in bunches, the defense ranks 31st in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and has been poor against both the pass (31st) and the run (31st).

In addition, turnovers have been a problem for the Chiefs. Despite a dominant 31-13 win at Washington last week, the Chiefs turned it over three more times, including two interceptions from Patrick Mahomes, who now has thrown eight picks this season and is sporting an INT rate nearly double his career average.

While Tennessee is 4-2 and Derrick Henry is running like vintage Jim Brown, the Titans have problems of their own. Tennessee is 28th in defensive DVOA, and to make matters worse, they lost cornerback Caleb Farley to a torn ACL this week.

On the offensive side of the ball, as great as Henry has been, the passing game has regressed a bit with the departure of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, as the Titans rank just 21st in passing DVOA. On top of that, Tennessee will be without left tackle Taylor Lewan this week after he suffered an ugly concussion on Monday Night Football, and wide receiver Julio Jones is questionable with a pesky hamstring injury.

While we don’t necessarily see any value in the number here, this game is a situational- and matchup-based play for us. Kansas City’s offense, which has been explosive but sloppy thus far, should have an absolute field day against this Tennessee defense.

And if Kansas City gets out to a fast start here and the Titans are forced to play catch-up, the dominant Henry takes a bit of a back seat because the Titans will be forced to air it out. The Chiefs should have no problem putting up 35 or more points here, and if that’s the case, the Titans may have a difficult time keeping pace, even against the Chiefs rickety defense.

Lions (+14.5) at Rams

• When: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
• Where: SoFi Stadium; Inglewood, Calif.
• TV: FOX

The Matthew Stafford-Sean McVay experiment has gone swimmingly so far in L.A. The Rams are off to a 5-1 start and set to face the Lions, Texans and Titans over the next three weeks, so sitting at 8-1 in mid-November is starting to look very possible, if not likely.

L.A. is third in Football Outsiders’ total DVOA and has been very balanced so far, ranking third in offensive DVOA and fourth in defensive DVOA. On offense, Stafford & Co. are operating the NFL’s second-best passing attack behind only the Buccaneers, while the running game checks in at 14th in DVOA.

The Lions, meanwhile, are off to a nightmarish 0-6 start, with the most recent blemish being a 34-11 drubbing at home to the once-lowly Bengals. As bad as Detroit has been and as bleak as things look — and trust us, they are bleak — there are somehow still six NFL teams that rank worse than the Lions in DVOA (Giants, Dolphins, Jaguars, Jets, Texans and Falcons).

From a pure matchup perspective, there isn’t a ton to like here about the Lions. However, any time you get a team that’s been as bad as they have, oddsmakers start to inflate the lines, as pro and casual bettors want nothing to do with this ugliness.

But let’s look at motivations here. On one hand, you might think that Stafford would love nothing more than to dominate and embarrass the Lions. But the Rams have Super Bowl aspirations and with the regular season now spanning 18 weeks, more than ever it has become a marathon, not a sprint, and you have to ask yourself whether L.A. has any incentive to run it up here.

Detroit has been competitive in five of six games, with only the Cincinnati game standing out as a true blowout. Detroit may have a shot to get dynamic running back D’Andre Swift going here against a Rams rushing D that ranks 11th in DVOA — good but far from great.

Regardless of what you think of Jared Goff, he did start a Super Bowl, and games with point spreads this high are typically reserved for situations where a Brandon Allen, Nathan Peterman or Tom Savage is starting — not a former No. 1 overall pick.

Last but not least, we saw the Rams stumble in an eerily similar spot last season, losing at home to the 0-13 Jets on Dec. 20, despite being favored by more than 2 TDs. We make the point spread in this one just under two TDs. Let’s hope the Lions can keep it close, and even if they can’t, we should have a shot at a backdoor cover here as the Lions do everything in their power to save face for Goff against the team that unceremoniously dumped him.

Texans (+18.5) at Cardinals

• When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
• Where: State Farm Field; Glendale, Ariz.
• TV: CBS

Arizona’s torrid start continued in Week 6 with the Cardinals going to Cleveland and laying a 37-14 beating on the Browns in a spot in which many expected the Cards to finally stumble. Now, Arizona is 6-0 and headed home for what looks like a cake walk against the lowly Texans.

After beating Jacksonville in the opener, the Texans have lost five straight and have been wildly uncompetitive in two of the last three, including getting smashed 31-3 by the Colts last week.

In our preseason market-implied power ratings, we would have made this game around Arizona -11. And while the downgrade from veteran starting QB Tyrod Taylor to rookie Davis Mills is a real one, the adjustment of more than seven points is just too much.

Even though this game features the Cardinals’ J.J. Watt going against his former team, much like we discussed with the Rams-Lions game, you have to wonder how much incentive Arizona has to run it up in this one.

Our HIGBEE model makes the Texans a +4 value here. Our weighted, market-implied power ratings that put a premium on recent games make this game closer to Arizona -15.5, so much as we see with the Lions, oddsmakers are just begging people to take the Texans. For better or worse, we will take the bait.

Colts at 49ers (-4.5)

• When: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
• Where: Levi’s Stadium; Santa Clara, Calif.
• TV: NBC

Sunday Night Football this week features two teams in desperate need of a win. The Colts are now 2-4 and have a healthy Carson Wentz settling in at quarterback, giving Indy hope that it can get back into the race in the downtrodden AFC South.

San Francisco, meanwhile, comes into the game 2-3 and in the midst of a three-game losing streak but coming off a bye and getting back starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. As rough as things have been for the 49ers, they had plenty of chances to beat both the Packers and Cardinals, so there is a chance this team is a little bit undervalued in the market.

While Indianapolis has the NFL’s No. 1-ranked run defense by DVOA, the Colts are 29th against the pass, meaning Jimmy G should have no problem easing back into the Niners offense. Our weighted, market-implied power ratings make this game closer to San Fran -5.5, and on top of that, the Niners are a +4 in our HIGBEE model, matching the Texans for the best value of the week.

Last time we saw San Francisco, the Niners pass rush had the ultra-mobile Kyler Murray on the run all afternoon. If San Fran can dial up the same kind of pressure this week against the more statue-like Wentz, it will present all kinds of problems for the Colts. Let’s roll with the Niners to get right in front of the home crowd on SNF.

Week 8 Look Ahead Lines