Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
You can read all about HIGBEE here.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
Week 9 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 21-21-0 ATS (50.0%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 14-10-0 ATS (58.3%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 2-3-0 ATS (40.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals (vs. SEA) | -1.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Texans (vs. PHI) | +14.5 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Colts (at NE) | +5.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Falcons (vs. LAC) | +3.5 | +2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Jets (vs. BUF) | +12.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Titans (at KC) | +12.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Dolphins (at CHI) | -5.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Packers (at DET) | -3.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Commanders (vs. MIN) | +3.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Jaguars (vs. LV) | +1.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Ravens (at NO) | -2.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Panthers (at CIN) | +7.5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Bengals (vs. CAR) | -7.5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Rams (at TB) | +2.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. LAR) | -2.5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Lions (vs. GB) | +3.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Vikings (at WAS) | -3.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Raiders (at JAX) | -1.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Saints (vs. BAL) | +2.5 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| Bears (vs. MIA) | +5.5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Bills (at NYJ) | -12.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Chiefs (vs. TEN) | -12.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Chargers (at ATL) | -3.5 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Eagles (at HOU) | -14.5 | -3 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Patriots (vs. IND) | -5.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Seahawks (at ARI) | +1.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
Week 9 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 3-2
- YTD: 25-15 (62.5%)
This week’s picks:
- Texans +14.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday
- Commanders +3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Lions +3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Falcons +3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Cardinals -1.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
For the second-straight week, we led off on Thursday night, this time with the Texans getting us to the window with a +14.5 ticket (after the Bucs had done us dirty on TNF in Week 8). Houston had been just +4.5 on the offseason look-ahead and +9 as recent as last week, so the books had inflated the living daylights out of this number.
…Vikings fans have to be over the moon for Kevin O’Connell, who has the Purple People Eaters off to a 6-1 start and looking like the runaway favorites to win the NFC North. But let’s tap the brakes here. Minnesota doesn’t even rank in the top half of the league in either offensive or defensive EPA per play during the first three quarters. On top of that, the Vikings have one of the last real home-field advantages in the NFL, meaning they tend to be overvalued when they hit the highway. This game was a pick ’em on the offseason look-ahead and was MIN -2.5 last week, so we have now blasted through the all-important key of 3.
…It looks like the Lions will get back D’Andre Swift in a limited role. Whether it’s Swift or Jamaal Williams, Detroit should have no problem pounding the Packers on the ground. Detroit is second in rushing EPA during the first three quarters, while Green Bay ranks 31st stopping the run. Points tend to be at more of a premium when divisional foes face off, so we’ll grab the all-important three plus the hook with the Lions.
…The Chargers-Falcons game appears poised to close ATL +3, so the locked-in contest line of ATL +3.5 has value. The Falcons welcome back running back Cordarrelle Patterson, who must be licking his chops to face a Brandon Staley D that simply cannot stop the run. On the other side of the ball, while Justin Herbert appears to have a similarly juice matchup, he’ll have to attack the Falcons secondary without both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. We remain bullish on Arthur Smith’s coaching acumen and cool on Staley, so give us the home dog.
…Arizona was 27th in offensive EPA per play during the first three quarters from Weeks 1-6, then got DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension and was a much-improved eighth in the same stat during Weeks 7-8. The Cardinals were -5.5 on the offseason look-ahead and -3.5 on last week’s look-ahead, so we should be buying near the bottom here (or selling high on the Seahawks, depending on your perspective).
Week 10 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 PM | Amazon | Atlanta (-1.5) at Carolina |
| Sun | 9:30 AM | NFLN | Seattle vs. Tampa Bay (-2.5) at Munich, Germany |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Detroit at Chicago (-1.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Minnesota at Buffalo (-9.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | New Orleans (-3) at Pittsburgh |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cleveland at Miami (-4.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Denver at Tennessee (-2) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Houston at N.Y. Giants (-6) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Jacksonville at Kansas City (-9.5) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Indianapolis at Las Vegas (-3.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Arizona at L.A. Rams (-3) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Dallas (-3) at Green Bay |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | L.A. Chargers at San Francisco (-4.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Washington at Philadelphia (-10.5) |
