Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
You can read all about HIGBEE here.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
Week 5 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 12-7-0 ATS (63.2%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 6-3-0 ATS (66.7%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 2-2-0 ATS (50.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams (vs. DAL) | -5.5 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Commanders (vs. TEN) | +2.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Browns (vs. LAC) | +2.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Saints (vs. SEA) | -5.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Panthers (vs. SF) | +6.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Buccaneers (vs. ATL) | -8.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| Packers (vs. NYG) | -7.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| Steelers (at BUF) | +13.5 | +3 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Dolphins (at NYJ) | -3.5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Cardinals (vs. PHI) | +5.5 | +2 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Raiders (at KC) | +7.5 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Colts (at DEN) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Lions (at NE) | +3.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Texans (at JAX) | +7.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Bears (at MIN) | +6.5 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Bengals (at BAL) | +3.5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| Ravens (vs. CIN) | -3.5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Vikings (vs. CHI) | -6.5 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Jaguars (vs. HOU) | -7.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Broncos (vs. IND) | -3.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Patriots (vs. DET) | -3.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Chiefs (vs. LV) | -7.5 | -2 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Jets (vs. MIA) | +3.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Eagles (at ARI) | -5.5 | -2 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Bills (vs. PIT) | -13.5 | -3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Giants (at GB) | +7.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Falcons (at TB) | +8.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| 49ers (at CAR) | -6.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Titans (at WAS) | -2.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Chargers (at CLE) | -2.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Seahawks (at NO) | +5.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Cowboys (at LAR) | +5.5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Week 5 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 4-1
- YTD: 14-6 (70.0%)
This week’s picks:
- Packers -7.5: 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday
- Lions +3.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Browns +2.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Panthers +6.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Rams -5.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday
Green Bay is a model play this week (HIGBEE +3) and has some matchup advantages as well. The Packers have a top-five rushing offense by DVOA, while the Giants rank 21st defending the run and will be without premium run-stuffer Leonard Williams. Green Bay’s passing game is a work in progress but should only improve as Aaron Rodgers develops a rapport with his young receivers. New York is a nice story thus far but is nonetheless a pretty fraudulent 3-1. The market move out to GB -8 and even -8.5 in some spots tell us there is still value in this number.
…The Lions fall short of being a model play, but to get 3.5 points against a 5-foot-11 rookie third-string QB who was at FCS Houston Baptist 18 months ago is too much to pass up. And even though the Lions roster has turned over significantly since Matt Patricia was deservedly fired, here’s betting that this team will throw everything and the kitchen sink at this game.
…Cleveland should get Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney back this week, additions that should go a long way toward making sure Justin Herbert doesn’t go bananas. On the other side of the ball, the Browns feature a premium rushing attack that will give L.A.’s porous run D major problems. The market has taken this game down to CLE +1, so we’ll grab the locked-in contest line of CLE +2.5.
…Backing Baker Mayfield and this dismal Carolina offense is unappetizing, but let’s do it anyway. This line was CAR +3 on offseason look-ahead lines and was only CAR +3.5 prior to last week’s games, so the move all the way out through the secondary key of 6 is significant. San Fran has cross-country travel on short rest, so we will plug our noses and go with the Panthers here.
…The Rams were -7 on the look-ahead line prior to getting dominated by the 49ers on Monday Night Football and this line has sagged to as low as LA -4.5 since reopening. Even though the contest line is LA -5.5, we still see plenty of value, and Cooper Rush has to have a clunker at some point, right?!?
Week 6 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 AM | Amazon | Washington (-1) at Chicago |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | San Francisco (-6.5) at Atlanta |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | N.Y. Jets at Green Bay (-9.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Minnesota at Miami (-1.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Tampa Bay (-6.5) at Pittsburgh |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | New England at Cleveland (-3.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-2.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Cincinnati (-1) at New Orleans |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Baltimore (-6) at N.Y. Giants |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Carolina at L.A. Rams (-9.5) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | FOX | Arizona (-2.5) at Seattle |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | CBS | Buffalo at Kansas City (PK) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Dallas at Philadelphia (-6) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Denver at L.A. Chargers (-4) |
