Each week in this space, we will examine where the NFL odds have settled, make our picks for the Bet the Board $6K Freeroll NFL Contest, and take an early look at the following week’s lines.
Last season, we went 59-31 ATS (65.6%) in the Bet the Board Contest and finished T-7 out of 2,421 entries. This year, we’ll see if we can match or even improve on that effort.
Once again this season, we’ll leverage a mix of analytics, situational angles, weather conditions, travel considerations, position group matchups and analysis, coaching edges and even a dash of contrarian thinking to make our picks.
We will also use our HIGBEE model as a guide to identifying value. HIGBEE attempts to pinpoint teams that may be due for turnover regression, teams that may be playing with extra motivation, and teams that may be the subject of a market overreaction.
You can read all about HIGBEE here.
During the 2021 season, teams that HIGBEE rated as +3 or better — the range in which a team can be considered a “value play” — went 51-29 ATS (63.8%).
Week 7 Bet the Board Contest Lines and HIGBEE Model
- YTD HIGBEE +3 or better: 15-17-0 ATS (46.9%)
- YTD HIGBEE +4 or better: 9-9-0 ATS (50.0%)
- YTD HIGBEE +5: 2-3-0 ATS (40.0%)
| Team & Opponent | Line | HIGBEE | Team JAMEIS | Opp. JAMEIS | Team SNACKS | Opp. SNACKS | Team WATTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos (vs. NYJ) | -0.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Bears (at NE) | +8.5 | +4 | +1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Raiders (vs. HOU) | -6.5 | +4 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Jaguars (vs. NYG) | -3.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 |
| Bengals (vs. ATL) | -6.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Packers (at WAS) | -4.5 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Browns (at BAL) | +6.5 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Colts (at TEN) | +2.5 | +2 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +1 |
| Cardinals (vs. NO) | -2.5 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Panthers (vs. TB) | +11.5 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 |
| Chargers (vs. SEA) | -5.5 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 | +1 |
| Steelers (at MIA) | +7.5 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Lions (at DAL) | +7.5 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 |
| Chiefs (at SF) | -2.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
| 49ers (vs. KC) | +2.5 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | +1 |
| Cowboys (vs. DET) | -7.5 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Buccaneers (at CAR) | -11.5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Seahawks (at LAC) | +5.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 |
| Dolphins (vs. PIT) | -7.5 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Saints (at ARI) | +2.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ravens (vs. CLE) | -6.5 | -2 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Titans (vs. IND) | -2.5 | -2 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Falcons (at CIN) | +6.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 |
| Commanders (vs. GB) | +4.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
| Giants (at JAX) | +3.5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +1 |
| Texans (at LV) | +6.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Jets (at DEN) | +0.5 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Patriots (vs. CHI) | -8.5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
Week 7 Bet the Board Contest Picks
- Last week: 3-2
- YTD: 18-12 (60.0%)
This week’s picks:
- Bengals -6.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Panthers +11.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Broncos -0.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Steelers +7.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Bears +8.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday
Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase & Co. should have no problem moving the ball through the air against a Falcons D that ranks dead last in the NFL against overall success rate, is second to last against passing success, and now loses stalwart corner Casey Hayward. Cincy was -10 on the offseason look-ahead and was -7 as recently as last week, so we are getting some value as books come off the key of 7.
…The Panthers shipped Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers mid-week for a boatload of draft capital, now the public can’t sell Carolina fast enough. (As if anyone was holding Panthers stock to begin with.) However, since 1989, underdogs of at least 13 points with a total of fewer than 40 are 57-47-3 ATS (54.8%). While we have to take the locked-in contest line of CAR +11.5 instead of the current market number, this line was CAR +5 on the offseason look-ahead. Since we’re trying to make up ground in the standings, we’ll roll the dice.
…The 4-2 Jets are one of the better stories in the NFL through six weeks and might even be the story if it weren’t for the team with whom they share a stadium: the 5-1 Giants. Gang Green has also been fortunate, drawing a backup QB in Jacoby Brissett, the Mitchell Trubisky/Kenny Pickett two-headed monster, and Dolphins third-stringer Skylar Thompson. New York lucks out again with Broncos backup Brett Rypien, but the line has moved too much. Denver was -7.5 on the offseason look-ahead, so we have blasted through the two most important numbers in football in the 7 and 3. The Broncos’ elite D is a bad matchup for a Jets team that can’t move the ball through the air.
…The Steelers travel to Miami for Sunday Night Football in a matchup between two QBs returning from concussion protocol in Kenny Pickett and Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins will be a popular public side with Tua back in the fold, but let’s number-grab the 7.5. Offseason look-ahead lines made this only Miami -3.5, so we are out through the secondary keys of 4 and 6 as well as the primary of 7.
…The thought of backing the one-dimensional, run-only Bears against a coach in Bill Belichick who excels at eliminating a team’s strength is terrifying, but this number is inflated in classic Monday Night Football fashion. Since 2010, underdogs of more than 7 points with a low total (41 or fewer) are 25-18-0 ATS (58.1%) on MNF. Chicago was +5 on the offseason look-ahead.
Week 8 Look Ahead Lines
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thur | 8:15 AM | Amazon | Baltimore at Tampa Bay (-3) |
| Sun | 9:30 AM | ESPN+ | Denver vs. Jacksonville (-3) at London, UK |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Carolina at Atlanta (-6.5) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Chicago at Dallas (-10) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | FOX | Arizona at Minnesota (-6) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Miami (-3) at Detroit |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Las Vegas at New Orleans (-1) |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | New England (-1) at N.Y. Jets |
| Sun | 1:00 PM | CBS | Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-10.5) |
| Sun | 4:05 PM | CBS | Tennessee (-3.5) at Houston |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | Washington at Indianapolis (-6) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | San Francisco at L.A. Rams (-2.5) |
| Sun | 4:25 PM | FOX | N.Y. Giants at Seattle (-1.5) |
| Sun | 8:20 PM | NBC | Green Bay at Buffalo (-8.5) |
| Mon | 8:15 PM | ESPN | Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland |
